South Asia after US exit from Afghanistan

South Asia At Sixes And Sevens

South Asia is getting further disturbed, thereby raising levels of public concerns in the region and beyond. And it is not just because of longstanding animosity between India and Pakistan. Events in Afghanistan that led to withdrawal of US forces have accentuated these trends, particularly after the Taliban takeover. Lately, it is Sri Lanka which has been radiating distress signals in the vicinity.

The Rising Nepal जेष्ठ २०७९

Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal Need China in their Development Process

Ratopati English पौष २०७८

Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative, first announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, has since developed into a global movement that is causing ripples around the globe. The BRI links three continents: Europe, Africa, and Asia via land and the Indian Ocean. Its major states are in South Asia, the intersection point where the continental "belt" meets the maritime "road," and it runs from Eurasia to Africa. Approximately 126 countries and 29 foreign organizations have signed 174 BRI partnership documents to date. Since the initiative's commencement in 2013, trade volumes between China and participating countries have surpassed $6 trillion, with over $80 billion invested. 300,000 new jobs have been generated. The Belt and Road Initiative looks to be a focus for the Chinese government in terms of creating strong international relationships and policy, rather than solely an economic venture. If accomplished, BRI transportation projects may cut travel times along economic corridors by 12%, improve commerce by 2.7 to 9.7%, raise income by up to 3.4 percent, and elevate 7.6 million people out of poverty. China has emerged as a ray of hope for South Asian countries as a stable development partner to complement their development needs at a time when the global economy is slowing and Western donor funding is declining. This has gradually strengthened their economic relations with China, enabling them to continue to grow and expand. South Asia has come out as a precedence area for BRI as South Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia includes four subprojects: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM), the Trans-Himalaya Corridor, and China’s cooperation with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives under the 21st century Maritime Silk Road. BRI’s most up-and-coming project—the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—runs through South Asia, and BRI’s most critical country, India, is also located in South Asia. This connection allows China to minimize its reliance on shipping via Singapore and the Melaka Straits, while Pakistan benefits from infrastructure and industrial growth, along with a telecommunications network. During the 2015/16 Indian blockade, Nepal realized the importance of diversifying its commercial and transportation connectivity with China. The Memorandum of Understanding was described as the most significant effort in the history of bilateral ties, heralding a new era of cross-border connectivity between the two countries. Under BRI, Nepal has been offered access to China's four major ports in order to minimize Nepal's excessive dependence on India. This effort is regarded as one of the most enthusiastic infrastructure undertakings ever devised. With such compelling potential, Nepal could not have stayed silent. Nepal formally joined the BRI on May 12, 2017, five years after its inception, adding another vital strand to the amicable ties between the two countries. Both Nepal and China have identified nine projects: upgrading the Rasuwagadhi-Kathmandu road; construction of the Kimathanka-Hile road; road construction from Dipayal to the Chinese border; the Tokha-Bidur road; the Galchhi-Rasuwagadhi-Kerung 400kv transmission line; the Kerung-Kathmandu rail; the 762MW Tamor hydroelectricity project; the 426MW Phuket Karnali hydro. With all of these initiatives on the horizon, the necessity to complete these projects must be the primary strategy for attracting finance and technology. Not only will state participation be vital for Nepal's overall development under the BRI concept of collaboration, but so will social involvement. To obtain significant benefits from BRI involvement, Nepal must solve local, geopolitical, and cultural issues. It will be critical to invest in ground-level projects targeted at improving the living standards of the people. Researching collaborative academic potential to construct a green inclusive corridor can be a necessary step in this approach. Nepal should have issued a precise proposal outlining the percentage of costs it would bear and the sum of funds it anticipates from China in the form of grants or low-interest loans. The MCC Truth MCC is one of the greatest grants received by Nepal from any government or agency in its history. MCC grant is not in the best interest of Nepal because of the following reasons: a) This agreement allows for the involvement of US military units in Nepal, resulting in a similar scenario to that of Afghanistan; b) It undermines Nepal's sovereignty/integrity; c) The US wants to fulfill its vested interest by requiring this agreement to be approved by the parliament; and d) It needs Nepal to acquire explicit permission from India before implementing the project. Also, Article 5.1 of the agreement also states that if the MCC fund is discovered to be utilized or employed for helping military and police activities in Nepal, the United States government has the power to terminate this agreement. MCC is a component of the United States' Indo-Pacific Strategy, which includes military components geared at opposing China, a friendly neighbor. According to the MCC agreement, it states that provisions in the compact will take precedence over Nepal's current laws in the event of a conflict, which requires parliamentary confirmation. The MCC is the first grant agreement that must be approved by Parliament which makes it more controversial. Friends of Silk Road is a regional organization consisting of Bangladesh, Malaysia, Nepal and Pakistan, Thailand, Sri Lanka and others. The objective of the FOSR is to promote cooperation between the countries in various spheres including trade and investment and discuss issues such as economic development strategies and youth policies in different fields. “Friends of Silk Road- Nepal '' is an initiative that brings people’s platform bringing together different segments of society. FOSR- Nepal started with representatives from communities, politicians, the media, commercial and opinion leaders, youth and women, professionals and civil society, learners and academics. The forum aimed to provide a deeper understanding as well as information about the advantages of the rewards of development and growth afforded by the multiple opportunities originating from the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. China's BRI has already started to invest in smaller South Asian countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives while MCC is also targeting these same countries for infrastructure and networking initiatives. With a total population of 2.5 billion people, South Asia is a lucrative market to invest in and participate in. One-fifth of the South Asian population are youth aged between 14-24 years. Hence, BRI has tremendous economic potential in South Asia. Nepal should commit to a non-alignment foreign policy, promote BRI, by protecting national interests by focusing on transparency and liability. It is prudent for Nepal to accept grants and Foreign Direct Investment, but only in key areas, in order to promote productivity, the environment, social coordination, employment, and long-term development. Politicians and officials are concerned about what India will think if Nepal pursues the BRI projects. With geopolitical pressure mounting, the political leadership has remained hesitant to move the BRI forward. To move ahead, the Belt and Road Initiative necessitates a strong political will. Nepal must clearly define its goals in terms of which sectors take international loans, which accept only international grants, and which take soft loans or subsidized loans.

Ratopati English मंसिर २०७८

Taliban announce hardline government as protests grow

KABUL, Sept. 8 : The Taliban announced on Tuesday an interim government drawn exclusively from their own loyalist ranks, with established hardliners in all key posts and no women -- despite previous promises to form an inclusive administration for all Afghans. But as the Taliban transition from militant force to governing power, they face a growing number of protests against their rule, with two people attending a demonstration shot dead in the western city of Herat. The government announcement was the latest step in the Taliban's bid to cement their total control over Afghanistan, following a stunning military victory that saw them oust the US-backed government on August 15, days ahead of the chaotic pullout of American troops. The Taliban, notorious for their brutal and oppressive rule from 1996 to 2001, had promised a more inclusive government this time. However, all the top positions were handed to key leaders from the movement and the Haqqani network -- the most violent faction of the Taliban known for devastating attacks. - 'Same as old Taliban' - Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund -- a senior minister during the Taliban's reign in the 1990s -- was appointed interim prime minister, the group's chief spokesman said at a press conference in Kabul. Mullah Yaqoob, the son of the Taliban founder and late supreme leader Mullah Omar, was named defence minister, while the position of interior minister was given to Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the feared Haqqani network. Co-founder Abdul Ghani Baradar, who oversaw the signing of the US withdrawal agreement in 2020, was appointed deputy prime minister. None of the government appointees were women. "We will try to take people from other parts of the country," spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said, adding that it was an interim government. Hibatullah Akhundzada, the secretive supreme leader of the Taliban, released a statement saying that the new government would "work hard towards upholding Islamic rules and sharia law". The Taliban had made repeated pledges in recent days to rule with greater moderation than they had in their last stint in power. However, analysts said the new lineup indicated little had in fact changed. "The new Taliban, same as the old Taliban," tweeted Bill Roggio, managing editor of the US-based Long War Journal. "It's not at all inclusive, and that's no surprise whatsoever," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. In a further sign that the movement had little intention of carrying out any meaningful reform, Zabihullah also announced the reinstatement of the Taliban's feared Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. The ministry had, under the Taliban's former rule, been responsible for arresting and punishing people for failing to implement the movement's restrictive interpretation of sharia law. - 'Actions, not words' - Even as the Taliban consolidate power, they face the monumental task of ruling Afghanistan, which is wracked with economic woes and security challenges -- including from the Islamic State group's local chapter. A growing number of protests have emerged across the country over the past week, with many Afghans fearful of a repeat of the Taliban's previous reign. Hundreds gathered at several rallies in Kabul on Tuesday, where Taliban guards fired shots to disperse the crowds. In Herat, hundreds marched, unfurling banners and waving the Afghan flag -- a black, red and green vertical tricolour with the national emblem overlaid in white -- with some chanting "freedom". Later, two bodies were brought to the city's central hospital from the site of the protest, a doctor in Herat told AFP on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. "They all have bullet wounds," he said. Demonstrations have also been held in smaller cities in recent days, where women have demanded to be part of a new government. The Taliban spokesman on Tuesday warned the public against taking to the streets, adding that journalists should not cover any demonstrations. The group -- which executed people in stadiums and chopped the hands of thieves in the 1990s -- has said it would not stand for any resistance against its rule. Washington, which has said it is in "no rush" to recognise the new government, expressed concern Tuesday about its members but said it would judge it by its actions. "We note the announced list of names consists exclusively of individuals who are members of the Taliban or their close associates and no women. We also are concerned by the affiliations and track records of some of the individuals," a State Department spokesperson said. "We understand that the Taliban has presented this as a caretaker cabinet. However, we will judge the Taliban by its actions, not words."

Ratopati English श्रावण २०७८

Taliban’s return to Kabul: Implications for South Asia and beyond

The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban carries enormous consequences for South Asia and beyond. Destabilization could start from there with Afghanistan once again becoming a safe haven for extremists working with their counterparts across the border in Pakistan. Developments in Afghanistan could significantly shift the balance of power and deepen the rivalry between the US and China.

Republica श्रावण २०७८

Taliban’s return to Kabul: Implications for South Asia and beyond

The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban carries enormous consequences for South Asia and beyond. Destabilization could start from there with Afghanistan once again becoming a safe haven for extremists working with their counterparts across the border in Pakistan. Developments in Afghanistan could significantly shift the balance of power and deepen the rivalry between the US and China.

Republica श्रावण २०७८

Reverberations Of Afghanistan’s Fall

As the situation unfolds following the US withdrawal, and collapse of Ashraf Ghani government and Taliban’s takeover, analysts have made predictions of different scenarios in South Asia and its periphery. New geopolitical landscape is in the offing with the Taliban assuming power in Afghanistan. In the changed security context, some countries would likely to gain leverage in shaping the Afghan politics over others. The chaotic scenes in Hamid Karzai International Airport since President Ghani left the country underscore the growing pains and anxieties of the Afghans, whose desperation to leave by any means is unparalleled. The number of Afghan refugees is likely to swell and they would try to enter any country in the neighbourhood as soon possible. Nepal may not be an exception given the porous border with India. Afghanistan has a unique history of defeating the world powers. In three centuries, one world power after another tried to intervene in Afghanistan to further their own interests but failed. In the 19th century, the British, in the 20th century the Soviet Union and in the 21st century

The Rising Nepal श्रावण २०७८

Tillerson in India to highlight US strategy in South Asia

NEW DELHI, Oct 25: Combating terrorism and India’s role in war-torn Afghanistan dominated talks between U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his Indian counterpart Wednesday as Tillerson highlighted the Trump administration’s new strategy for South Asia.

Republica आश्विन २०७४

South Asia after US exit from Afghanistan

सम्बन्धित सामग्री

NEW DELHI, Oct 25: Combating terrorism and India’s role in war-torn Afghanistan dominated talks between U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and his Indian counterpart Wednesday as Tillerson highlighted the Trump administration’s new strategy for South Asia.