Fears 1.5C climate goal could be softened at COP27
A key target to stop climate change from raising global temperatures is now in doubt at a UN summit. Climate change talks have been trying to limit the average rise in temperatures to 1.5C.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, chair of COP27, reads the nine-page Sharm El Sheikh Implementation Plan, the document that concluded the climate summit on Sunday Nov. 20, to an exhausted audience after tough and lengthy negotiations that finally reached an agreement to create a fund for loss and damage, a demand of the global South. […]
1: The biggest win on climate since Paris...?
A new funding arrangement on loss and damage - a pooled fund for countries most affected by climate change - has been hailed as a "historic moment". It can be seen as the most important climate advance since the Paris Agreement at COP 2015.
For decades the victims of a changing climate were the ghosts the richer world just couldn't see.
Money has long been available to cut carbon or help countries adapt to rising temperatures - but there was nothing for those who had lost everything.
"For someone who has seen his home disappear in the floods in Pakistan, a solar panel or a sea wall isn't much use," explained Harjeet Singh from the Climate Action Network.
The COP27 decision on loss and damage won't fix that immediately.
The fund comes with many unknowns. What will be the criteria to trigger a payout? Where will the money come from, and will it be enough?
Compare the EU's €60m contribution against the $30bn costs that Pakistan faces.
But establishing the loss and damage fund is about more than money or compensation or reparations - it is really about solidarity and rebuilding trust.
Despite the dramatic impacts the rising temperatures will inflict on the world, this fund signals that no one will be left behind.
It is a concrete demonstration that we really are all in this together.
2: ...Or the biggest loss on climate change since Paris?
For many countries, the last hours of the negotiation represent a real step backwards in the fight against rising temperatures.
While the loss and damage text represented a big win, the overall cover decision is being seen as a missed opportunity in the fight against climate change.
The man who ran the COP26 negotiations in Glasgow put it bluntly.
"Emissions peaking before 2025, as the science tells us is necessary. Not in this text," said Alok Sharma.
"Clear follow-through on the phase down of coal. Not in this text."
As well as all these limitations there was also a sharp U-turn on the language around fossil fuels.
The text now includes a reference to "low emission and renewable energy".
This is being seen as a significant loophole that could allow for the development of further gas resources, as gas produces less emissions than coal.
3: The spirit of 1.5C is strong, even if the text is weak
There's a fifty-fifty chance over the next five years that we'll go over this important marker of temperature increases, compared to pre-industrial times. We're likely to pass it permanently by 2031.
But at COP27, the EU and other developed countries were willing to die on the hill of strengthening the promise to keep 1.5C alive.
Their efforts were ultimately in vain as the cover text failed to include a reference to the phasing out of all fossil fuels, seen as a necessary advance on last year's decision to phase down the use of coal.
"I wish we got fossil fuel phase out," said Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner, the Climate Envoy of the Marshall Islands, who along with other island states fear annihilation if temperatures rise above 1.5C.
"The current text is not enough. But we've shown with the loss and damage fund that we can do the impossible. So we know we can come back next year and get rid of fossil fuels once and for all."
There's a deep sense of solidarity by the richer nations with the island states on this issue of keeping below 1.5C
Faith in the threshold has also become a key differential between the US, EU and other richer countries and China, which is markedly less concerned about the goal.
While the world will undoubtedly be a better place the closer we stay to the 1.5C guiderail, belief in the ideal is also a political and economic bridge to the developing world.
So even as the science and the COP process falter on 1.5C, expect the diplomatic attachment to grow stronger in the coming years.
4: The fossil fuel industry has finally come out of the shadows
One key takeaway from COP27 was the presence and power of fossil fuel - be they delegates or countries.
Attendees connected to the oil and gas industry were everywhere. Some 636 were part of country delegations and trade teams.
The crammed pavilions felt at times like a fossil fuel trade fair. This influence was clearly reflected in the final text.
Demands from India and others for all fossil fuels to be phased down didn't survive, despite the backing of the EU and many other countries rich and poor.
Many African countries were also keen to use the COP as a platform to promote new oil and gas initiatives in their countries.
"The fact that the outcome only talks about 'phase-down of unabated coal power' is a disaster for Africa and for the climate," said Babawale Obayanju, from Friends of the Earth Africa.
"We don't need more gas extraction in Africa, devastating our communities for the benefit of rich countries and corporations. What we needed from COP27 was agreement to a rapid, equitable phase out of all fossil fuels."
That battle will resume at COP28 in Dubai.
5: Democracy really matters for the climate
The undoubted darling of the COP was Brazil's president-elect Luiz Ignacio Lula Da Silva.
Just as he did in Copenhagen in 2009, Lula electrified the conference with his promise of zero deforestation by 2030.
More than his commitment to the Amazon, Lula restored people's faith in the power of the ballot box to solve the climate problem.
So too, in his un-showy way did President Biden. The retention of the Senate by the Democrats most likely ensures that his Inflation Reduction Act will not be overturned or watered down.
At a stroke it puts the United States' carbon cutting goal for 2030 within reach.
The affirmation that democracy is an effective weapon against climate change was also demonstrated in the actions of the host country.
With security and surveillance everywhere, the conference took place in an atmosphere best described as barely restrained intolerance.
As well as the ongoing troubles over human rights, the Egyptian hosts paid scant attention to basic functional needs of a conference such as food, drink and decent wifi.
When push came to shove, there was a distinct lack of empathy from negotiators for the presidency. This really mattered in the final showdown.
COP27 could have been a major advance against climate change. That it ultimately didn't hit that mark is at least partly down to the hosts. (with inputs from BBC)
As the UN climate change conference, COP27, has come halfway to the two-week-long event in Sharma El Sheikh city of Egypt, world leaders have repeated the warning of 'climate hell', while decisive negotiations are now transferred to the political table.
The water level in the 2km long Imja Glacier at about 5,000m has been reduced with an outlet weir. Photo: KIRIL RUSEV n the lead-up to the UN Climate Summit COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh this week, the young activist Greta Thunberg told the BBC how the youth could cope with climate anxiety and the fatalism. […]
In the 27th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (COP27), a documentary on the damage caused by climate change in Nepal has been shown.
Nov 9: Country signatories to the UN climate change convention have to submit a plan - called the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) - every five years. This details how they plan to reduce carbon emissions - to help slow global warming - and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
India's updated NDC includes measures such as reducing the volume of carbon emissions per unit of GDP and cutting down use of fossil fuels to generate electricity.
But at the top of the list is "LiFE - Lifestyle for Environment", a "healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement".
"The vision of LIFE is to live a lifestyle that is in tune with our planet and does not harm it," a government statement says. It was first proposed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the COP26 summit in Glasgow in 2021.
But experts say there is a contradiction between this aim and the increase in consumption that both drives and is spurred by economic growth.
"Modernity basically means increased consumption. The concept of LiFE is not in conformity with that trend of consumerism," says Dr Nilanjan Ghosh, president of the Indian Society for Ecological Economics.
Growing consumption, rising economy
India is now among the world's top economies, with estimated growth of around 7% this year - this is at a time when other major economic powers are facing a recession.
While inflation and global headwinds are causes for concern, consumer demand is strong. Private consumption forms about 55% of India's GDP, and experts expect this to continue to drive growth.
This, Dr Ghosh says, is why there is a "dichotomy" in the government's emphasis on LiFE.
"Will there be action to adopt a different lifestyle or will it be business as usual is the question," he says.
Eugenie Dugoua, an assistant professor in environmental economics at the London School of Economics, says solutions to the climate crisis will need to put the focus on ordinary people like the LiFE campaign has done.
"But we should not be overly optimistic about how much emission reduction will come out of it," she says, adding that research shows that while nudges like these can have a positive effect in the short term, this isn't sustainable in the long term.
Behavioural change is "necessary and important", but it can't be the main tool for policymakers, she adds.
"Instead, governments need to focus on structural change in the energy, transportation and agricultural systems."
Largest increase in energy demand
The biggest source of carbon emissions in India is the energy sector.
In its October report, the International Energy Agency said that India is likely to see the world's biggest jump in energy demand this decade, although its energy use on a per capita basis is well under half of the global average.
Some experts believe lifestyle changes are possible even with a continued rise in consumption.
"It is not about asking people to not buy air conditioners, but we can make the habit of keeping our room temperature at 25C, which will lead to a cut in our energy consumption," says Madhav Pai, acting CEO of World Resources Institute India, an international non-government organisation that is working with the Indian government to disseminate the message of the LiFE programme.
Mr Pai says the campaign envisages helping people to gradually change their lifestyle.
"It is a nudge to 1.5 billion Indians for behavioural change towards a circular economy - to make them sign up for it."
A larger message
The Indian government has also positioned LiFE as a message to western countries.
"The consumption pattern of the world is mindless and pays scant regard to the environment," wrote India's environment and climate change minister Bhupender Yadav in the Indian Express newspaper in October, days after Mr Modi unveiled an action plan for Mission LiFE.
"Mission LiFE tries to remind the world that the mindset of 'use and throw' must immediately be replaced by 'reduce, reuse and recycle', he added.
But India is also facing its own share of serious environmental problems.
A report by Delhi-based think-tank Centre for Science and Environment showed that India generated 3.5 million tonnes of plastic waste in 2019-20, of which only 12% was recycled and 20% burned.
"The remaining 68% remains unaccounted for, which means it is in the environment (land and water) or in dumpsites," the report said.
It also found that three out of every four river monitoring stations in India posted alarming levels of heavy toxic metals.
Air pollution is a major concern, especially in northern Indian states.
A World Bank report released earlier this year ranks India among the countries that have the worst environmental health - the government has contested the report's methodology and offered its own environmental and sustainability parameters.
Successive governments have also been accused of ignoring environmental laws while pushing for infrastructure and development projects, especially in the fragile Himalayan region.
Experts say all this needs to be addressed by a government that wants people to change their lifestyles to fight against climate change.
"Change has to be wholesome," Dr Ghosh says.
"The two [government's actions and people's behaviour] will need to be in consonance." (with inputs from BBC)
Photo: UN he COP27 climate summit is taking place amid a rash of political, economic and environmental upheavals, including missed funding and emission targets, increased pollution and climate devastation, rising global inflation, cuts in Western development assistance and the negative after-effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The summit, the 27th […]
Nov 6: More than 120 world are leaders heading to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.
About 30,000 people will attend the two-week summit, known as COP27, though some activists are staying away over concerns about Egypt's rights record.
The past year has seen extreme weather regularly linked to climate change.
The summit will open with welcome speeches from the UN's new climate change chief, Simon Stiell, and Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister and COP27 President-Designate Sameh Shoukry.
Mr Stiell was previously a senior government official in Grenada, the low-lying Caribbean nation where climate change is an existential threat.
Mr Shoukry said last week that the conference would be "the world's watershed moment on climate action".
There will also be key addresses from diplomats and scientists including Hoesung Lee, chair of the IPCC, the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.
COP27 will really begin in earnest on Monday with a World Leaders' Summit, when heads of state and government leaders deliver five-minute addresses outlining what they want from the meeting.
At the last climate summit, in Glasgow last year, there were powerful speeches from people like Barbadian PM Mia Mottley, who told an enrapt audience that temperature rises of "two degrees is a death sentence" for island nations.
World leaders will speak on Monday and Tuesday, and once they depart, conference delegates get down to the business of negotiation.
At last year's COP26 summit in Glasgow a number of pledges were agreed:
-to "phase down" the use of coal - one of the most polluting fossil fuels
-to stop deforestation by 2030
-to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030
-to submit new climate action plans to the UN
Mr Stiell has called for this summit to be focused on turning last year's pledges into action and "get moving on the massive transformation that must take place".
All of that will come down to money.
Developing nations - which are at the forefront of climate change - are demanding that previous commitments to finance are upheld.
But they also want there to be discussion on "loss and damage" finance - money to help them cope with the losses they are already facing from climate change rather than just to prepare for future impacts. This would be the first time the issue has been put on the formal agenda of a COP summit.
The urgency of the climate change issue has been evident during the past 12 months with devastating flooding in Pakistan as well as in places including Nigeria and extreme heat in India and Europe in the summer.
Ahead of the conference a series of major climate reports were released outlining progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The UNEP emissions gap report concluded that there was "no credible pathway" to keep the rise in global temperatures below the key threshold of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
This 1.5 degree limit was agreed back in 2015 in the Paris Agreement at the 21st UN Climate Summit, COP21. All subsequent climate summits have focused on developing actions to achieve this goal.
As well as all the formal negotiations there will be hundreds of events over the two weeks with exhibitions, workshops and cultural performances from youth, business groups, indigenous societies, academia, artists and fashion communities from all over the world.
Protests - which are normally a vibrant feature of COP summits - are likely to be subdued.
Egypt's President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, in power since 2014, has overseen a widespread crackdown on dissent. Rights groups estimate the country has had as many as 60,000 political prisoners, many detained without trial.
Mr Shoukry has said that space would be set aside in Sharm el-Sheikh for protests to take place. However, Egyptian activists have told the BBC that many local groups had been unable to register for the conference.
GLASGOW, November 12: The UN climate change conference COP26 in Glasgow has announced that Egypt was chosen to host the upcoming session of the conference in 2022 (COP27). At the summit on Thursday, Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Special Envoy for Climate Change congratulated Egypt, highlighting that the UAE will cooperate with partners everywhere to identify lessons learned in order to achieve effective results, Gulf News reported.
He added that the UAE will work to ensure that all segments of society are part of this great effort to allow humanity to change course to a better future, extending an open invitation to the world to advance real climate action through inclusion, transparency and responsibility. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host the 2023 edition of the conference, Gulf News reported.
His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai announced that the UAE had won its bid to host the COP28 conference in 2023.
The UN Climate Change Conference is the largest global conference of heads of states and governments on climate and environmental issues. "We congratulate the UAE for winning bid to host COP28 conference in 2023. It is the most international climate conference. Our country deserves this win. We will put all our potential and capabilities to make this conference a success," Sheikh Mohammed tweeted. "The UAE will remain committed to global climate efforts and work to protect our Earth planet," he added.
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