As the situation unfolds following the US withdrawal, and collapse of Ashraf Ghani government and Taliban’s takeover, analysts have made predictions of different scenarios in South Asia and its periphery. New geopolitical landscape is in the offing with the Taliban assuming power in Afghanistan. In the changed security context, some countries would likely to gain leverage in shaping the Afghan politics over others. The chaotic scenes in Hamid Karzai International Airport since President Ghani left the country underscore the growing pains and anxieties of the Afghans, whose desperation to leave by any means is unparalleled. The number of Afghan refugees is likely to swell and they would try to enter any country in the neighbourhood as soon possible. Nepal may not be an exception given the porous border with India.
Afghanistan has a unique history of defeating the world powers. In three centuries, one world power after another tried to intervene in Afghanistan to further their own interests but failed. In the 19th century, the British, in the 20th century the Soviet Union and in the 21st century