ANKARA, July 9: Türkiye has taken a "fair and balanced stance" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and strengthened ties with both countries, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Saturday.
"While strengthening our relations with Ukraine, we did not allow ou
WASHINGTON, April 20: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed global growth forecast for 2022 to 3.6 percent amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 0.8 percentage points lower than the January projection, according to its newly released World Economic Outlook report.
The Ukraine crisis unfolds while the global economy is "on a mending path" but has not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said, noting that global economic prospects have worsened "significantly" since the forecast in January.
A severe double-digit drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for Ukraine and a large contraction in Russia are "more than likely," along with worldwide spillovers through commodity markets, trade and financial channels, the report showed.
This year's growth outlook for the European Union has been revised downward by 1.1 percentage points to 2.8 percent due to the indirect effects of the conflict, making it a large contributor to the overall downward revision, according to the report.
The U.S. economy is on track to grow 3.7 percent in 2022, 0.3 percentage points lower than the January projection, before growth moderating to 2.3 percent in 2023. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 4.4 percent this year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous projection, followed by a 5.1-percent growth in 2023, the report showed.
China's National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday the country's GDP grew 4.8 percent year on year in the first quarter, marking a steady start in 2022 in the face of global challenges and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
Analysts said the full-year growth target of 5.5 percent set by China's policymakers is still attainable but requires greater efforts, given increasing economic headwinds.
Global growth is projected to decline from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in both 2022 and 2023, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023, respectively, than in the January projection, the report noted.
The report laid out five principal forces shaping the near-term global outlook: the Russia-Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening and financial market volatility, fiscal withdrawal, slowing growth in China, and pandemic and vaccine access.
Inflation has become "a clear and present danger" for many countries, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a virtual press conference during the 2022 spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
He said even prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation surged on the back of soaring commodity prices and supply-demand imbalances, and many central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, had already moved toward tightening monetary policy.
Conflict-related disruptions "amplify those pressures," said Gourinchas. "We now project inflation will remain elevated for much longer."
For 2022, inflation is projected at 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging markets and developing economies, 1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than the January projection, the report showed.
Financial conditions tightened for emerging markets and developing countries immediately after the conflict, Gourinchas noted. "Several financial fragility risks remain, raising the prospect of a sharp tightening of global financial conditions as well as capital outflows," he said.
On the fiscal side, policy space was already eroded in many countries by the pandemic, said the IMF chief economist. "The surge in commodity prices and the increase in global interest rates will further reduce fiscal space, especially for oil- and food-importing emerging markets and developing economies."
The report also warned that the conflict increases the risk of a more "permanent fragmentation" of the world economy into geopolitical blocks with distinct technology standards, cross-border payment systems and reserve currencies.
"Such a 'tectonic shift' would cause long-run efficiency losses, increase volatility and represent a major challenge to the rules-based framework that has governed international and economic relations for the last 75 years," Gourinchas said.
In response to a question from Xinhua, the IMF chief economist said at the press conference that the multilateral organization thinks fragmentation "is more of a longer run risk than a short run risk."
"We are not anticipating that there will be immediately severe dislocation, but you could see countries sort of de-globalizing or reverting and undoing some of the gains from trade integration," Gourinchas said. "And that's certainly a source of worry for us."
The IMF urged central banks to adjust their policies decisively to ensure that medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, noting that clear communication and forward guidance on the outlook for monetary policy will be "essential" to minimize the risk of disruptive adjustments.
Several economies will need to consolidate their fiscal balances, the report noted, adding that this should not impede governments from providing well-targeted support for vulnerable populations, especially in light of high energy and food prices.
"Embedding such efforts in a medium-term framework with a clear, credible path for stabilizing public debt can help create room to deliver the needed support," according to the report.
Gourinchas also argued that even as policymakers focus on cushioning the impact of the war and the pandemic, other goals will require their attention, noting that the most immediate priority is to end the war.
He also urged countries to close the gap between stated ambitions and policy actions on fighting climate change, secure equitable worldwide access to the full complement of COVID-19 tools to contain the virus, as well as ensure that the global financial safety net operates effectively.
"The many challenges we face call for commensurate and concerted policy actions at the national and multilateral levels to prevent even worse outcomes and improve economic prospects for all," he added.
BEIJING, March 14: The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues on Monday as relevant parties are working to broker a peaceful solution. Following are the latest developments of the situation:
Russian and Ukrainian delegations will resume talks on Monday via video link, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday.
"Negotiations go non-stop in the format of video conferences. Working groups are constantly functioning. A large number of issues require constant attention. On Monday, March 14, a negotiating session will be held to sum up the preliminary results," Mykhailo Podoliak, advisor to the Head of the President's Office of Ukraine, tweeted on Sunday night.
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External electricity supplies have been restored at Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear power plant, four days after its disconnection from the power grid, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Sunday.
Ukraine's regulatory authorities told the IAEA that Ukrainian specialist teams repaired one of the two damaged power lines at Chernobyl on Sunday, enabling all required off-site power to be delivered to the plant, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said in a daily statement.
The plant will be connected to the Ukrainian electricity grid on Monday morning, according to Ukraine's regulator.
"This is a positive development as the Chernobyl nuclear power plant has had to rely on emergency diesel generators for several days now," the IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said. "However, I remain gravely concerned about safety and security at Chernobyl and Ukraine's other nuclear facilities."
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Near half of Russia's roughly 640 billion U.S. dollars of gold and foreign currency reserves has been frozen, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Sunday.
Siluanov said on a Russian TV program that Russia will pay roubles to its debt holders.
He said that the current conflict in Ukraine has not been easy for Russian financial institutions. Still, the country's capital reserves have made it possible for banks under severe restrictions to function.
"Of course, we have enough money to ensure the production of vital goods. The Central Bank will provide the necessary liquidity to the financial system," he said.
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Explosions were heard on Sunday in Ukraine's western city of Lviv at about 6 a.m. local time (0400 GMT).
Earlier in the day, air raid alerts went off in Lviv at 3:30 a.m. local time, with residents rushing to bomb shelters for security.
NEW YORK, March 3: Oil prices surged again on Wednesday after major oil producers decided to stick to modest output increase despite supply fears amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April delivery added 7.19 U.S. dollars, or 7 percent, to settle at 110.60 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest finish since 2011.
Brent crude for May delivery increased 7.96 dollars, or 7.6 percent, to close at 112.93 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange, the highest level since 2014.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, announced on Wednesday that it would stick to existing plans for a modest oil output increase of 400,000 barrels per day in April.
The oil alliance noted in a statement after the 26th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting that the current volatility in the oil market is caused by geopolitical developments rather than changes in market fundamentals.
Meanwhile, prices garnered some support after data showed a drop in U.S. fuel stockpiles.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels during the week ending Feb. 25, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday.
According too the EIA, total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week, while distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels.
Oil prices have jumped to multi-year highs in recent days as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the far-reaching Western sanctions against Moscow prompted fears about energy supply disruptions from key exporter Russia.
The International Energy Agency announced Tuesday that its member countries had agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to ease any supply shortfall caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the announcement failed to calm markets, with the WTI and Brent surging 8 percent and nearly 7.2 percent, respectively, on Tuesday.
"This is because the quantity to be released would cover a mere two weeks of Russian oil shipments," Carsten Fritsch, energy analyst at Commerzbank Research, said Wednesday in a note.
According to the Interfax news agency, Russia exported 4.6 million barrels per day on average in January and February.
"If the lion's share of this falls away, it will probably prove difficult to find sufficient alternative suppliers," said Fritsch, adding "the market appears to be increasingly pricing in an outage of Russian oil shipments."
Experts said that energy prices will be a key factor to watch as events unfold, warning of potential adverse impact on economic growth from higher commodity prices, at a time when the world is still recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty, we think now is a time for investors to be more selective, consider portfolio hedging, and seek longer-term opportunity," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
